Trump Risk Index reveals global impact of a Trump presidency

Trump Risk Index looks at global impact of a shift in U.S. policy likely under a Trump presidency

What you probably already know: Global leaders are watching the upcoming U.S. election very closely, in large part because they know what to expect, policy-wise, from both candidates. Should Donald Trump return to the White House, he’s likely to initiate policy changes that will impact international trade, national security and immigration. Those policies will impact some countries more than others. The Economist’s Intelligence division dove into this in its latest report.

Why? The report predicts Trump would follow through on his promises to raise tariffs and implement trade restrictions, particularly on imports like steel. It also predicts changes in military aid to certain areas, increasing pressure on allies to contribute financially, as well as an increase in funding for border-wall protections and tighter immigration restrictions. For executives and board directors whose businesses cross international borders, these topics are worth a deep dive.

What it means: Unsurprisingly, Mexico has the largest risk, followed by Costa Rica, Germany, the Dominican Republic, Panama and China. Mexico would take a hit, both from the immigration and border security front, as well as trade. China’s trade relationship with the U.S. would also be impacted, as would Canada’s. Trade is one of the main reasons Germany makes the list, as well. Latin American countries have the largest risk related to immigration, with El Salvador topping that list, largely due to the remittances the country’s residents receive from the U.S.

How to mitigate risk: The report offers suggestions to reduce exposure should Trump get elected, including taking preemptive steps, particularly in industries likely to be targeted by tariffs. If your company exports items like steel, grain, cotton, and oils, particularly to China or Mexico, it would be wise to prepare now for challenges. Additionally, the report suggests that Trump is likely to identify political allies in certain countries, like Hungary and Argentina, whose ideologies mirror his own, and thus would fare better should Trump’s proposed policies be enacted.

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