Why autism rates are rising among American kids

What you probably already know: Autism diagnoses are increasing in the United States. Among 8-year-old children, one in 31 had autism in 2022, according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2020, the rate was one in 36. The 2022 statistic is nearly five times higher than in 2000 — that’s when the CDC first started keeping track. But these numbers don’t necessarily mean autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is becoming more common.

Why? Various factors, such as increased screenings — particularly in historically underserved Black and Hispanic communities — and better awareness leading to earlier diagnoses, are likely driving the rates. The criteria used by providers to diagnose ASD have also broadened, meaning milder cases are now less likely to go undiagnosed, and regional health centers are providing more autism services. The CDC stated that increases may also be influenced by “whether children have insurance coverage or meet eligibility criteria for access to early intervention services.”

What it means: Autism isn’t a disease, and we don’t know exactly why some people have this neurodevelopmental disorder and others don’t. Scientists are studying potential links, including genetic mutations. Some studies suggest chemical exposure or parental age could be involved. Dozens of studies have debunked claims of vaccines causing autism, but Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently called autism an “epidemic” and believes childhood vaccines — especially the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine — are connected to rates that are “running rampant.” He recently stated that autism is preventable and that epidemics are caused by an “environmental toxin,” not genetics. No evidence exists suggesting that autism can be prevented.

What happens now? Kennedy has ordered the CDC to investigate whether there’s a connection between autism and vaccines and put well-known vaccine skeptic David Geier in charge of the effort. The National Institutes of Health is gathering private medical records from federal and commercial databases to give researchers “comprehensive” patient data. Kennedy also wants researchers to look at exposure to mold, food additives, pesticides, water, medicines, ultrasounds, and obesity. Kennedy said he expects some results to be available by September. Senator Bill Cassidy, the chairman of the Senate Health Committee, has argued that further research seeking a link would be a waste of taxpayer money and delay research that might uncover the true causes of autism. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the new director of the National Institutes of Health, said in his confirmation hearing that he’s “convinced” vaccines don’t cause autism. But he expressed support for additional research into the topic — if only to reassure skeptical parents. “The more we pretend like this is an issue, the more we will have children dying from vaccine-preventable diseases,” Cassidy said during the hearing. So far this year, the U.S. has recorded 800 cases of measles across at least 24 states. Texas has seen over 600 cases, mostly among unvaccinated children and teens.