Gender divide widens in upcoming presidential election

Election divide is steepest along gender lines

What you probably already know: This November’s presidential election is shaping up to be a tight one – and it’s also revealing the intense political divide between men and women in the U.S. A new poll from the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday showed that the divide has expanded, with the majority of men supporting Donald Trump and women backing Kamala Harris. Trump’s advantage with men has gone up to 10 points, compared to five points in 2020, and Harris’ edge with women is up to 13 points, compared to Biden’s 12 in 2020. Experts are calling it the most gendered election they’ve seen in many years.

Why? While gender gaps in elections aren’t unusual, it’s been a while since there’s been this significant a divide. In 1980, women supported Jimmy Carter over Ronald Reagan, a shift politically, as women had previously favored mostly Republican candidates before that. It’s worth noting that the shift happened as Carter came out in support of abortion rights, and Reagan opposed it. Abortion is the lead issue in this fall’s election for women, according to the WSJ poll, while the economy is top of mind for men.

What it means: Both parties are trying to reach the other gender, with Harris appearing on a show popular with Black men, Charlamagne tha God, and the Howard Stern show, and Trump appearing on Fox News with an all-female audience. Despite these efforts, it’s difficult to overcome these increasing political divides, which are particularly stark among young people. Gen Z women are more liberal than ever, an increase of 38% compared to a decade ago, and 15 percentage points higher than their male counterparts. Meanwhile, young men are moving right, becoming more religious and falling behind in the economy. In fact, 700,000 fewer young men are in the workforce now than in 2004, while women’s participation rose in the same period.

What happens now? Despite the divide, Trump seems to be doubling down on his masculine rhetoric. While aids encouraged him to stop insulting Harris in sexist ways, he has reportedly disagreed with them and continued to insult her. Meanwhile, the polls suggest the election is incredibly tight in swing states, making the likely outcome far too close to call.