Florida outmigration rises as climate worsens

Florida starts to feel brunt of outmigration due to climate change

What you probably already know: Just after the start of the pandemic, tens of thousands of people moved to Florida. Miami, in particular, benefitted from the boom as tech companies set up shop there and the startup scene began to bloom. Cities like Tampa Bay experienced huge jumps in demand for homes and housing prices jumped from a median sale price of $325,000 in early 2022 to more than $500,000 by 2024. Now, though, as extreme weather continues to cause flooding and destruction, and insurance companies raise rates and even decline to cover homes in the area, the outmigration has begun.

Why? The median sale price for homes in Tampa has fallen 3.3% this year, and the number of homes sold has fallen 22%. The Wall Street Journal took a look at the shift and spoke with people leaving the area who are struggling to sell their homes. One person said he has dropped the price five times and still has no offers. Meanwhile, the region is bracing for Hurricane Milton, which was upgraded Monday to Category 5 storm, the strongest there is. Widespread storm surges are expected in areas including Tampa and Saint Petersburg that haven’t yet recovered from Helene.

What it means: Insurance premiums in Florida have shot up as much as 400%, according to the WSJ report, making it one of the fastest increases in the U.S. An intense hurricane season, which this one is shaping up to be, could drive prices even higher. People who would once have considered waterfront properties are shifting to inland homes instead, and new condo buildings are sitting empty after the collapse of the Miami condo building brought new assessment fees that have driven up per-unit costs. In some cases, mortgage lenders won’t even take the risk associated with condos anymore. Assessment fees can crest six figures.

What happens now? Extreme weather, including hurricanes and floods, but also extreme heat, wildfires and drought, could result in an estimated 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050, according to the United Nations refugee agency. As the agency puts it, climate change knows no borders. While climate migration will be difficult to measure precisely — people often move for a variety of reasons — extreme storms can sometimes tell a clearer story. For example, half of the population of New Orleans moved out of the city immediately after Hurricane Katrina and the city has less than 80% of its pre-Katrina population today. There’s no where on Earth that will be unaffected by climate change, however. As a columnist for the New York Times wrote this week: “There is no climate haven. We all live in Florida now.”