How affirmative action ban increased diversity at many schools

What you probably already know: The Supreme Court’s 2023 decision to end affirmative action in the college admissions process upended the entire ecosystem, with many predicting that it would significantly impact underrepresented students of color. Class Action, an advocacy organization focused on higher-ed reform, has found that although both the number and percentage of those students has significantly declined at selective institutions — particularly at Ivy schools — it has increased the share of such students “almost everywhere else,” particularly at state flagship universities. Black freshman enrollment, for example, skyrocketed by 30% at Louisiana State University and 50% at the University of Mississippi, while Hispanic enrollment rose by a third at the University of Tennessee and the University of South Carolina. The number and share of white and Asian American freshmen remained relatively flat across the board, though the number of Asian American freshmen at Ivy-plus schools grew 7%.

Why it matters: The enrollment patterns fit into what the reports calls the “cascade effect,” in which highly qualified students of color ended up enrolling in less selective institutions. Black students, for instance, enrolled at colleges with lower graduation rates and expected earnings after college. Diversity, however, increased at several state flagship universities, particularly at LSU, the University of South Carolina, the University of Florida, the University of Mississippi and the University of Illinois. It also increased diversity at many private colleges and universities, especially those with national reputations, though enrollment at HBCUs declined for reasons that aren’t clear. However, “an outcome that was entirely predictable was the decline in the enrollment of underrepresented students of color at institutions that had considered race in their admissions process.”

What it means: Black and Hispanic enrollment also rose in the nine states that had already banned race-conscious admissions prior to the Supreme Court ruling: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Washington. The ruling “effectively, if unintentionally, enabled institutions to increase their diversity,” the report notes. “The key point, not so well understood even by some researchers, is that the highly qualified students of color who lost an advantage in the admissions process were not going to opt out of higher education altogether. They would end up, instead, enrolling at schools that would have been their safety schools” prior to the ruling.

What happens next: The 25-page analysis notes that it aims to reveal “what” happened with first-year enrollments following the decision, not why it happened, noting that the full impact of the ruling is still unfolding. Many institutions are exploring race-based neutral strategies that measure several criteria for admissions, including socioeconomic factors geographic diversity and support for first-generation students. Enrollment outcomes following the Supreme Court decision are a reminder that college admissions were never ‘race-based,’ the report notes. “College admissions and enrollment occur within a complex ecosystem.” Class Action says it will continue analyzing the impacts with more reports in the future.